up to 5s. quarterly, if they please, and upon a claim will be allowed in proportion.

To assign what shall be the charge upon this, where contingency has so great a share, is not to be done; but by way of political arithmetic a probable guess may be made.

It is to be noted that the pensions I propose to be paid to persons claiming by the third, fifth, and sixth articles are thus: every person who paid 1s. quarterly shall receive 12d. weekly, and so in proportion every 12d. paid quarterly by any one person to receive so many shillings weekly, if they come to claim a pension.

The first year no claim is allowed; so the bank has in stock completely 22,500 pounds. From thence we are to consider the number of claims.

Sir William Petty, in his "Political Arithmetic," supposes not above one in forty to die per annum out of the whole number of people; and I can by no means allow that the circumstances of our claims will be as frequent as death, for these reasons:

1. Our subscriptions respect all persons grown and in the prime of their age; past the first, and providing against the last, part of danger (Sir William's account including children and old people, which always make up one-third of the bills of mortality).

2. Our claims will fall thin at first for several years; and let but the money increase for ten years, as it does in the account for three years, it would be almost sufficient to maintain the whole number.

3. Allow that casualty and poverty are our debtor side; health, prosperity, and death are the creditor side of the account; and in all probable accounts those three articles will carry off three fourth-parts of the number, as follows: If one in forty shall die annually (as no doubt they shall, and more), that is 2,500 a year, which in twenty years is 50,000 of the number; I hope I may be allowed one-third to be out of condition to claim, apparently living without the help of charity, and one third in health and body, and able to work; which, put together, make 83,332; so it leaves 16,668 to make claims of charity and pensions in the first twenty years, and one-half of them must, according to Sir William Petty, die on our hands in twenty years; so there remains but 8,334.

But to put it out of doubt, beyond the proportion to be guessed at, I will allow they shall fall thus:

The first year, we are to note, none can claim; and the second year the number must be very few, but increasing: wherefore I suppose

One in every 500 shall claim the second year, Pounds which is 200; the charge whereof is 500 One in every 100 the third year is 1,000; the charge 2,500 Together with the former 200 500 ====== 3,500

To carry on the calculation.

Pounds s. d. We find the stock at the end of the third year 66,933 18 0 The quarterage of the fourth year, abating as before 19,000 0 0 Interest of the stock 4,882 17 6 The quarterage of the fifth year 18,600 0 0 Interest of the stock 6,473 0 0 ================ 115,889 15 6

The charge 3,000 0 0 2,000 to fall the fourth year 5,000 0 0 And the old continued 3,500 0 0 2,000 the fifth year 5,000 0 0 The old continued 11,000 0 0 =============== 27,500 0 0

By this computation the stock is increased above the charge in five years 89,379 pounds 15s. 6d.; and yet here are sundry articles to be considered on both sides of the account that will necessarily increase the stock and diminish the charge:

First, in the five years' time 6,200 having claimed charity, the number being abated for in the reckoning above for stock, it may be allowed new subscriptions will be taken in to keep the number full, which in five years amounts to 3,400 0 0 Their sixpences is 115 0 0 =============== 3,555 0 0 Which added to 115,889 pounds 15s.

An Essay Upon Projects Page 36

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